SDM Industry Forecast Study — 2025 Report + 2027 Edition Pre-Purchase
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Edition notice
This is the 2025 edition, and it is superseded. Buying it now also pre-purchases the 2027 edition.
The findings below are the published 2025 record, fielded October 2024. They remain the citable benchmark for that year — but they are a year's trading behind the market. Rather than retire the report, we have folded it into the next wave at no extra cost.
Included · immediate
The 2025 report, now
All 30 pages, downloadable the moment you check out. Everything described on this page.
Included · on publication
The 2027 edition, free
Sent to your purchase email as soon as the next wave publishes. No second payment, no action needed from you.
A finding from this report
The security channel missed its own 2024 forecast by eight points. It is more bullish going into 2025.
A year ago, 58% of security dealers and integrators expected their revenue to rise in 2024. Half of them actually did. That gap is the most useful number in this study, because at the time of fielding the same population was more optimistic than it had been heading into the year it just missed — seven in ten expected growth in 2025. Whether that holds depends on which niches they are in, and that is what the rest of the report measures.
Forecast, outcome, and the next forecast
Security dealers, integrators and service companies · n=125
Optimism ran eight points ahead of the outcome, and the recurring revenue line kept climbing anyway. Among companies that grew, the mean increase was 16% in 2024 and the mean expected increase for 2025 is 15% — so the story is not a bigger boom, it is a wider one. Which niches carry it is the question the next twenty pages answer.
n=125 unless noted. Q505 asks how respondents expect overall company revenue to change, and by what percentage. The 58% figure is prior-wave data pulled from the 2024 edition of this study. Mean increases are calculated among those expecting or reporting an increase (n=62 for 2025, n=87 for 2024); average decreases had insufficient sample for analysis. Recurring monthly revenue figures are medians among the 77% of companies that generate RMR (n=83), with outliers removed. Fielded October 16 – 26, 2024. Source: myCLEARopinion Insights Hub & SDM, Industry Forecast Study.
So which niches is the growth actually in?
Ten product and service lines, each scored twice — how healthy dealers judged the market, and what share expected revenue from it to rise. Plus twenty-two vertical markets, ranked by where contractors expected their fastest growth. And when the 2027 wave lands, you get that too.
2025 report now · 2027 edition on publication
Four more numbers from the study
77%
of companies generate recurring monthly revenue. Of those, 71% grew it year over year, by a median of $9,000 a month.
41%
put finding and retaining employees in their top three challenges for 2025 — narrowly ahead of increasing sales at 40% and controlling costs at 31%.
27%
name economic conditions as the single biggest factor on 2025 sales, ahead of security risk management by businesses at 16% and capital spending at 11%.
$1,500
median price of a single-family residential security system sold in the past 12 months. The mean is $2,865 — the spread is the point.
What the study covers
This is a market-conditions study rather than a brand study. Each product and service line below is measured four ways — who offers it now, who plans to, how healthy dealers judge that market and whether they expect revenue from it to rise. Each vertical market is measured by the share of contractors serving it and the share naming it their fastest-growing segment. Either way you can find your own category rather than read an industry average.
Product & service lines · 10 tracked · listed alphabetically
Access control as a service (ACaaS)Cybersecurity servicesManaged access controlNetwork health monitoringRemote video monitoringSoftware as a service (SaaS)Video surveillance as a service (VSaaS)
High-end homes (existing)Low-end homes (existing)Middle-market homes (existing)Multi-unit dwellingsNew construction — custom builtNew construction — tract homes
This study does not name, test or rank manufacturer brands — there are no brand awareness, preference or consideration questions in it. Category and market lists are shown here to describe the report's coverage; the figures attached to each one are in the report. If you need a brand scorecard in the security category, that is a separate piece of work we field directly.
What we're not showing here
The single chart above is one page of thirty. The rest is the part you would actually plan against — category by category, market by market, with the base size on every figure.
Pages 12–14
The niche health matrix
Every one of the ten product and service lines scored twice — how healthy dealers rate that market today, reported as a top-two-box share alongside a mean score, and what share expect revenue from it to rise next year, each with its own base. This is the page that tells you whether your category is the one carrying the 70%.
Pages 6–8
Offerings now versus next
What each line is offered by today, what is under discussion for the next one to two years, and what has been ruled out — plus the same split across the seven managed, hosted and cloud services. The adoption pipeline, not just the installed base.
Pages 15–18
Markets served & revenue mix
All twenty-two verticals by share of contractors serving them, the residential and non-residential niches expected to grow fastest in 2025, and the average revenue split across services and across product categories.
Pages 19–22
Pricing, in full
The full price distribution for residential systems, the lowest and highest dollar value of non-residential projects sold with the spread between them, and monthly monitoring prices for residential and non-residential systems — every band, with means and medians.
Pages 9–11 & 23–26
Revenue, RMR and capital
The full 2024 revenue distribution by band, the RMR distribution for 2024 against 2023 side by side, fifteen ranked business challenges, thirteen named factors expected to move sales, and who is using or seeking external capital.
Pages 27–29
Who is answering
Primary business type, job function, generation and region, plus who has a social media presence, who participates in an authorized dealer program and who acquired another security company in the past twelve months.
What security dealers and integrators offer, what they are about to offer, what they charge, where their recurring revenue comes from and which markets they expect to grow — asked of the people running the businesses. Every figure carries its base size and question wording — and you will get the same again when the 2027 wave publishes, at no extra cost.
Instant download of the 2025 report, plus the 2027 edition free
Who was surveyed
125
Usable completes
Active, qualified SDM subscribers whose business functions include installing or integrating security. Fielded October 16 – 26, 2024.
50%
Sit in executive management
A further 26% are in general management, with the rest across engineering, installation, service and sales roles. These are the people who set the budget.
34%
Are security systems integrators
Followed by value-added resellers and IT installing companies at 17%, security service companies at 14%, and installing dealers with and without central station equipment.
Sample drawn from active, qualified subscribers to SDM. The survey ran online and took a median of 17 minutes to complete; respondents were offered a $15 gift card. Closed-ended data is tabulated in SPSS; open-ended answers are summarised, coded or reproduced as written. Base sizes appear on every chart as “n=xx”; bases of 30 or more are treated as statistically reliable and bases under 15 are read directionally only. Significance is tested at the 90% confidence level. Some totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding. This is the sixth edition in the series, published annually since 2020.
What's in the report
30 pages · table of contents
Study Overview & Methodology
3–5
Product & Service Offerings, Revenue Trends & RMR
6–11
Current and future offerings, including managed and cloud services
Share of revenue by service and by product category
18
Pricing
19–22
Residential and non-residential system prices
20–21
Average monthly monitoring price
22
Challenges, Sales Factors & External Capital
23–26
Demographics
27–29
Contact Us
30
Frequently asked questions
Which edition is this, and what exactly do I receive?
You receive two. The 2025 edition downloads immediately — 30 pages, n=125, fielded October 16 – 26, 2024 — and it is the edition every figure on this page comes from. The 2027 edition is then sent to your purchase email at no extra cost as soon as it publishes. There is nothing further to pay and nothing to claim. If you need the 2025 data for a citation or a benchmark you have it today; if you need the current market, it is already paid for.
Is the 2025 data still worth having?
For benchmarking and for citation, yes — it is the published record of what the security channel charged, earned and expected in that year, and the pricing and RMR distributions move slowly. For sizing next year's demand, it is a year behind, which is the reason the 2027 edition is bundled in rather than sold to you separately. Read the 2025 figures as the baseline the next wave will be measured against.
Were security dealers and integrators expecting revenue growth in 2025?
Most of them were. 70% expected company revenue to increase in 2025, by a mean of 15% among those expecting an increase. For context, 58% expected an increase for 2024 when the same study was fielded a year earlier, and 50% went on to report one — so the channel is forecasting above the rate it actually delivered.
How much recurring monthly revenue do security companies generate?
77% of companies generate RMR, with a median of $60,000 a month at the end of 2024, up from $55,000 a year earlier. Among those generating it, 71% increased their RMR year over year, by a median of $9,000 a month and an average of 20%. The full distribution, 2024 against 2023, is on page 11.
What does a residential security system sell for?
The median single-family residential system sold in the past 12 months went for $1,500, against a mean of $2,865 — a gap that tells you how wide the range is. Median monthly monitoring on residential systems is $45. 73% of companies doing residential work sold at least one single-family system in the period. Non-residential project values and monitoring prices are broken out separately.
What are the biggest challenges facing security dealers in 2025?
Labour first, then demand. 41% place finding and retaining employees among their top three challenges, 40% increasing sales, 31% controlling costs and 28% keeping current with technology. Fifteen challenges are ranked in total, and thirteen named factors are tested for their impact on sales. Separately, 27% expect economic conditions to have the single biggest impact on 2025 sales.
What markets do security integrators actually serve?
On average, commercial work accounts for 30% of a company's business and residential 23%, with industrial at 13%, institutional 12%, retail 11% and government 10%. Underneath that sit twenty-two named verticals, each with the share of contractors serving it and the share naming it their fastest-growing segment for 2025.
Does this report name or rank security manufacturers?
No. This is a market-conditions and business-performance study — it measures what the channel sells, charges and expects, not how it rates individual brands. There are no brand awareness, preference or consideration questions in it. If you need a brand scorecard in the security category, that is a separate piece of work we field directly.
Who should buy this report?
Security manufacturers and distributors sizing next year's channel demand by product line and vertical; private equity firms and consultancies diligencing security installers, integrators and monitoring businesses, where the RMR and revenue distributions do most of the work; software and service providers deciding which managed or cloud offering the channel is ready to resell; and dealers and integrators benchmarking their own pricing, RMR and market mix against the industry.